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Carlsen Predicts Gukesh Will Lose World Title in 2026
Magnus Carlsen, known for his straightforwardness, remains unaffected by diplomacy or caution. Currently, he holds a minimal lead of half a point over the world champion, Dommaraju Gukesh, as the final round of the Norway Chess tournament approaches in Stavanger, Norway. Despite this, Carlsen has boldly forecasted that Gukesh will lose his world title by 2026.
Unexpectedly and perhaps unnecessarily, Carlsen shared his thoughts after defeating the world’s third-ranked player Fabiano Caruana, who led before the penultimate round. Grinning, Carlsen proceeded to the press room to participate in a live interview on Chess.com, where he holds significant shares. When asked if he plans to win the Candidates Tournament in 2026 to challenge Gukesh, Carlsen indirectly suggested that if Nakamura, Caruana, or Nepomniachtchi win the Candidates, they would likely be favorites against Gukesh.
The victory against Caruana, claimed after more than four hours of intense gameplay, was yet another instance of Carlsen’s mastery in converting a slight advantage into triumph. Caruana, overwhelmed by the ticking clock and Carlsen’s pressure, made errors that allowed Carlsen to seize the win decisively.
In contrast, Gukesh’s victory over China’s Yi Wei, currently ranked twelfth globally, unfolded differently. Gukesh, only 19, made a clear strategic error but soon found himself in his element — tactical play. He crafted a brilliant sequence that led to a commanding advantage.
The tension on Carlsen could have been intensified during the last round, had Hikaru Nakamura capitalized on his advantageous position against Arjun Erigaisi, another top Indian player. However, Nakamura opted for safety over risk, prioritizing his qualification for the Candidates Tournament.
At Norway Chess, a win in the slow game earns three points (with 1.5 in sudden death and one for the loser), leaving Nakamura and Caruana with a slim chance at the top prize if unlikely outcomes occur. Yet, logic suggests only the inexperienced world champion might spoil Carlsen's national hero status.
On the women’s side, Anna Muzychuk made significant strides with a flawless victory over world champion Wenjun Ju, while India’s Humpy Koneru blundered in a favorable position against China’s Tingjie Lei. Sara Khadem’s spectacular triumph was noteworthy, especially considering her recovery from illness after taking antibiotics since the first day.
Results from the eighth round: Nakamura vs. Erigaisi ended in a draw, Gukesh defeated Yi Wei 3-0, and Carlsen triumphed over Caruana 3-0. In the women's tournament: Vaishali vs. Khadem; Wenjun Ju vs. Anna Muzychuk 0-3; Tingjie Lei vs. Koneru 3-0.
Standings: 1st Carlsen 15 points; 2nd Gukesh 14.5; 3rd Nakamura 13; 4th Caruana 12.5; 5th Erigaisi 11.5; 6th Yi Wei 8. Women's standings: 1st Anna Muzychuk 15.5; 2nd Koneru 13.5; 3rd Tingjie Lei 13; 4th Wenjun Ju 12.5; 5th Vaishali 9.5; 6th Khadem 9.
Final round on Friday at 17:00, broadcast live: Erigaisi vs. Carlsen; Caruana vs. Gukesh; Yi Wei vs. Nakamura. In the women's tournament: Khadem vs. Tingjie Lei; Koneru vs. Wenjun Ju; Muzychuk vs. Vaishali.
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