Instituto Bolívar de Estrategia y Diálogo
Pensamiento Estratégico, Diálogo Global

South Korea Approaches a Political Turning Point Amid Presidential Elections

Jun 3, 2025, 03:43

Six months following the ousting of former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who had enforced a controversial martial law, the nation is on the brink of a significant political transformation. The upcoming presidential elections on Tuesday are seen as a pivotal moment for change. Lee Jae-myung, representing the liberal Democratic Party (PD) and instrumental in the parliamentary movement that led to Yoon's removal, is leading the polls decisively. According to a recent survey by Yonhap, Lee holds over 49% of the vote, enjoying a comfortable lead of more than 12 points ahead of his opponent.

The enthusiasm was palpable at Lee's campaign finale in Seoul, where approximately 50,000 supporters gathered, according to organizers, suggesting strong voter support. "The vote is mightier than bullets," Lee declared at the event.

His rival, Kim Moon-soo of the conservative People Power Party (PPP), the same party as the deposed Yoon, struggles with the political fallout from his association with Yoon, who currently faces trial for inciting insurrection. At the time of the coup, Kim served as the Minister of Employment.

Sumin Kim, a 27-year-old programmer, reflects the sentiment of many. "I wasn't someone who attended rallies, but the martial law made me realize how a president could manipulate lives for personal gain. That's why I'm here," she shared, waiting at Yeouido Park, a symbolic locale near the National Assembly, where citizens once thwarted a military intervention. The self-coup lasted mere hours, but the public's demand for Yoon's removal persisted through demonstrations until the Constitutional Court ratified his dismissal, paving the way for these elections. "Lee's victory is inevitable," she asserts, clutching blue balloons symbolizing the PD, having already voted early.

As night fell, the park transformed into a sea of glowing sticks, reminiscent of K-pop culture, with attendees orderly seated to view the stage. An ocean of blue lights swayed hypnotically against the backdrop of towering office buildings, with chants of "Lee Jae-myung!" resounding. Energetic songs and dances filled the air.

Upon Lee's arrival, he was flanked by security personnel with bulletproof briefcases, a reminder of his narrow defeat to Yoon in 2022 and surviving a neck stabbing in 2024. Following these events, his party secured a legislative victory, dominating the National Assembly and crippling Yoon's administration. The former president defended the emergency law, accusing the opposition of parliamentary obstructionism and anti-state activities, even suggesting North Korean sympathies.

"Yeouido is the historic site where democracy's light dispelled the insurrection's darkness," Lee began, speaking through a bulletproof glass and wearing a protective vest beneath his blue jacket. He urged the completion of the "revolution" started on December 3, emphasizing that votes, not bullets, are the most potent tools for change. His half-hour speech concluded with thousands singing the national anthem as a giant screen displayed recent historical moments, culminating in the protests that led to Yoon’s fall.

Yet, some citizens still believe Yoon acted rightly. "The martial law was justified because [Yoon] aimed to arrest communists," said Son, a 23-year-old, after attending Kim Moon-soo's rally near City Hall. Holding both South Korean and American flags—symbols for many PPP supporters fearing a Democratic government might weaken ties with Washington, crucial for a nation technically still at war with North Korea—Son expressed, "I'll vote for Kim to uphold liberal democracy in South Korea."

Kim has criticized Lee's alleged authoritarian leanings in his speeches. "Voters must choose between a totalitarian regime under Lee or a democracy ready for progress," he asserted, as reported by The Korea Times. Kim also accused Lee of being a "crime boss" due to pending legal cases involving public fund embezzlement, false campaign statements, and alleged schemes to funnel money to North Korea. "You all are my bulletproof vests," Kim declared at his final rally. "I don't need bulletproof glass. My conscience is bulletproof."

The election winner will face the daunting task of healing a deeply fractured society. Cho Seung-rae, a two-term PD lawmaker and Lee's chief spokesperson, notes a global trend of political polarization, exacerbated by unique South Korean factors. Speaking from the PD headquarters shortly before the campaign's end, he highlighted the country's rapid development and compressed political evolution over 70 years, which have left unresolved tensions. The emergency law has only deepened these political and social divides. "Addressing this growing polarization is not just critical for Korea but also one of the most urgent challenges for democracies worldwide," he stated.

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